Jul 2026

Weekly round-up for Stonex Bullion

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

EMEA & Asia, 6^th July 2026: Tel +44 203 580 6115 / +44 7384 833897

Gold ETFs; North American disinvestment of $7.2Bn in the year to 26^th June

Light bargain hunting lifts gold above the 10D Moving average and technicals suggesting some upside scope

Gold, now below all four key moving averages –Death Cross completed but only narrowly

Source; Bloomberg, StoneX

As the US – Iran position has been taking up less headline space of late, and with US employment numbers posting less robust numbers than the markets had been expecting, gold has been nudging higher over the past week, although as we write on 6^th July it has found some resistance at $4,180 and is resting on technical support above $4,130. Silver has been following suit, and after basing out at just over $56, has now run into resistance at slightly above $63. An easing in crude prices has also contributed to the improvement in sentiment in the rest of the commodities sector, but we still can’t say for certain that the ceasefire in the Middle East will hold. Some tankers are getting through the Strait of Hormuz, but a number also executed U-turns over the weekend and the Joint Maritime Intelligence Centre said again this past Sunday that there is still some harassment from Iranian forces, while naval forces are warning that the centre of the strait remains mined.

Baltic Dry Index; easier but still cautious

Silver; also technicals also improving but still offering resistance

Outlook; cautious

The European Central Bank’s Central Bankers’ forum last week saw the Policy Panel putting up a united front with respect to monetary caution, with Kevin Warsh in particular making it clear that the Federal Reserve remains independent and that that “will not change”. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, described the recent rate hike in Europe as being the obvious course of action given the monetary and inflationary background; asked if they would do it again, she skirted the issue. Sone observers are expecting another hike from the ECB although the swaps markets are effectively pricing in no further change.

On the other side of the Atlantic the US’ Nonfarm Payroll figures were softer than expected, while the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business)’s latest survey was flat. Economists take this survey seriously as it reflects hiring intentions and the June print was 100.2 against 100.3 in May, registering the fourth consecutive month of declines. The June number showed 32% of business owners reporting job openings that they could not fill, up three points from May, although that previous reading was the lowest since May 2020. Openings for skilled workers were reported by 27% with 12% having openings for unskilled labour.

So the US labour market is a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls were up by 57k against expectations of 113k,with unemployment down to 4.2% and smaller businesses struggling to find skilled workers. On balance, the market is taking a slightly more cautious view about the prospect for US rate hikes; the swaps market is currently pricing in a 34% chance of a hike in Q4 and this has helped give hard assets some support.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)

Source: CFTC, StoneX

COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)

Source: CFTC, StoneX

COMEX Managed Money gold positions, as prices eased marginally in the week to 22nd June, saw outright longs expand by just 2.4% or 10t while shorts expanded just over four tonnes or 10%, taking the net long up by just five tonnes to 359t. Silver longs dropped by 6% or 190t to 2,823t while shorts lost less than 1% to 905t, leaving the net long at 1,918t. Last week’s numbers are not yet available due to the 4^th July long weekend.

Gold ETFs are still friendless. The latest numbers from the World Gold Council date to 26th June, at 4,048t, a 38t gain drop in the week, with 24t coming out of US funds (1.1%), 5.9 out of Europe (0.4%) and 8.7t out of Asia (1.7%); this gives a year-to-date gain of just 18.7t. Net investment flows over that period amounted to +$8.3Bn, with $12.3Bn of inward investment in Asia and $3.0Bn in Europe, but net disinvestment of $7.3Bn.since then, Bloomberg has reported further losses of 11t.

Silver ETFs continue to find some sporadic interest, interspersed with fresh redemptions; the Bloomberg numbers imply a net gain over the past week of just eight tonnes. This takes the year-to-date net redemptions to 2,469t or 9% to stand at 24,352t. World Mine production is ~26,300t.

The S&P, gold and copper; S&P/gold correlation still rising at 0.69 while S&P/Cu correlation is 0.50