Jun 2026

Weekly round-up for StoneX

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

Gold ETFs in reverse; COMEX gold managed money saw small increases on both sides in the week to 23rd June; silver saw long liquidation and a small decrease in shorts as both prices eased

Gold slips briefly below $4,000: silver:gold ratio closely tracking the US 2Y yield

Gold, now below all four key moving averages –Death Cross completed but only narrowly

Source; Bloomberg, StoneX

As the Memorandum of Understnading over the Middle East went into effect last week this gave gold a short-lived uplift, but resistance from the ten-day moving average was strong enough to repel advances. Tensions flared again over the weekend and have put gold onto the back foot once more as concerns over medium-term inflationary forces and the associated potential for higher bond yields ae keeping potential investors on the sidelines. Activity remains thin and as the quarter-end approaches the next couple of days will be instructive. Silver is underperforming gold, reflecting its industrial demand profile with the gold:siver ratio at 12-month highs. Looking at things another way, while the silver:gold ratio (as opposed to the gold:silver ratio) is showing a high correlation with the the-year US bond yield, averaging 0.90 since the start of hostilities and currently 0.98.

Silver:gold ratio and the 2Y yield

Silver; also below all four major moving averages with the 20D threatening to cross below the 10D

Outlook; mixed

The Core PCE released in the States last week was 4.4%, in line with expectations but still too high for the comfort of the FOMC and, in tandem with healthy Q1 GDP (2.1%, well above expectations) plus comparatively strong consumer spending serves to underpin the clarity of the message coming from new Chair Kevin Warsh and is likely to keep gold under pressure. Fellow members of the FOMC were robust last week in their views; Dean Goolsbee (Chicago) said on Thursday that he saw glimmers of light in the latest inflation figures, but that prices nonetheless are too high “and trending the wrong way”, while John Williams (New York) noted that inflation was “unquestionably elevated” and although the tariff effect has passed through, supply risks due to the Middle East remain “a source of risk to both the growth and inflation outlooks”.

The US Administration is expected to impose wide-ranging tariffs on a number of countries on 24^th July (when the current 10% global tariff expires) on the back of concern over counterparties not sufficiently preventing the import of goods believed to be made with forced labour. This includes China, the EU, Japan and India and a certain amount of early purchase and shipping is underway (freight rates are at four-year highs). This may put some further pressure on commodity prices thereafter and silver would most likely be caught up in this. The position is exacerbated by companies also looking to ship goods ahead of any renewed surge in fuel costs.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)

COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)

Source: CFTC, StoneX

COMEX Managed Money gold positions, as prices eased marginally in the week to 22nd June, saw outright longs expand by just 2.4% or 10t while shorts expanded just over four tonnes or 10%, taking the net long up by just five tonnes to 359t. Silver longs dropped by 6% or 190t to 2,823t while shorts lost less than 1% to 905t, leaving the net long at 1,918t.

Gold ETFs are again friendless. The latest numbers from the World Gold Council date to 19th June, at 4,086t, a 61.8t gain for the year to date; since then, Bloomberg has reported net losses of 20t. Silver ETFs saw some bargain hunting at the end of last week after combined losses of 260t over the course of June. This takes the year-to-date net redemptions to 2,421t or 9% to stand at 24,401t.

World Mine production is ~26,300t.

The S&P, gold and copper; S&P/gold rising at 0.57 while S&P/Cu is 0.55