Weekly round-up for StoneX Bullion

The Blue Wave of Democrat results in the USD Mid-Terms potentially points to gridlock in Congress. With that potentially hampering planning, and the probability of reduced fiscal stimulus, this initially put the dollar under pressure and contributed to a recovery in gold and silver prices.

While the dollar then reversed course towards the end of the week, two-year yields slid lower, and this maintained the support for gold and silver.

The net changes from the opening on 3^rd November through to Monday morning are as follows:

• BBDXY +0.8%
• Two-year yield down 1.4% from 4.59% to 4.53%
• Brent -9.7%
• Spot gold +4.6%
• Spot Silver +5.8%...

…. reflecting the fact that this is more than just a currency /yield driven move and pointing to some establishment of fresh (or renewed) long positions on the expectation of further Congressional Wrangling.

Further, the prospects for the Gulf have remained fluid; thus far, since the mid-terms. Here we summarise the latest different stances; the US and Iran are still some way apart, although there are reports of a potentially constructive proposal from the mediators, as follows:

Qatar: Qatar is trying to broker interim steps to regain confidence, along with Pakistan and other countries in the region. One reported suggestion would put US moves on the blockade and frozen funds together with Iranian cooperation on nuclear inspections; reopening Hormuz would follow, with broader nuclear talks after that. The details are still being negotiated.

United States: the US says any agreement to end the war must involve Iran’s nuclear programme. President Trump says a strong deal could avert renewed strikes, but Secretary of State Rubio says talks have made little progress and calls Iran’s demands unacceptable.

Iran: Iran says it won’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz or begin nuclear negotiations until the US meets its conditions, which include the lifting of sanctions and the naval blockade, releasing frozen assets, and ending hostilities across the region. Iran has sent a proposal through Qatar, but says it is waiting for Washington’s response.

An added, but not unexpected, complication Is the inconclusive result of the Israeli elections, with the President giving Gadi Eisenkot the first opportunity to form a coalition. Mr.; Eisenkot leads a centrist party.

It looks as if negotiations, if and when they get underway, will remain protracted.

Impact: if this sends oil higher again – or even just sustains Brent above $80, US inflationary forces are likely to persist well into 2027. With the Fed on the inflation warpath, this talks to higher yields and this is clearly a headwind for gold.

So for the time being it looks as if gold is still constrained to a narrow range. Silver remains concerned about its three main demand growth drivers (AI, EV, Solar) and is likely to continue to underperform.

For a much deeper dive into the potential impact of the Blue Wave, please see this piece, which we put out just before the elections

US Mid-Terms 2026; scenario analysis

Gold; $4000 regained. Resistance $4,030 - $4,150

We are expecting silver to throw off a surplus equivalent to roughly seven weeks’ global fabrication demand this year. If liquidation from ETPs is taken into account then that excess rises to roughly eleven weeks’ demand. Liquidity is ample with the one-month lease rate currently flat.

Silver support $50.50; resistance $55.00

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

S&P hi-tech sub-sector and inverted gold; strong correlation

While the correlation between Brent and the 10Y yield is still devastating

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Key long bond yields, long-term and the 5Y-30Y spread; yield curve continues to flatten

Source for both charts: Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold and silver inventories, ETFs; poor sentiment persists but some nibbling on the buy side

Highlights:

Gold:

• COMEX gold 715.2t: the lowest post-break reading. The last lower value was 702.9t on 14^th January 2025, but that comparison spans the break. It has fallen for seven consecutive sessions, from 28^th October to 6th November, although the fall on 2nd November was only 0.004t.
• Gold net long 322.3t: the lowest since 26^th May 2026 (303.1t).
• Gold gross short 58.1t: the highest since 7^th July 2026 (58.4t).
• Gold ETFs: down 8,7t globally over the past week to 4,266.4. Europe led the way with 6.5t of net redemptions. Year-to-date; Asia up 26%(112.5t) to 550.6; Europe up 7.4% (105.1t) to 1,528.0. North America, up 15.5t or 0.7% to 2,110.6t.

Silver:

• Silver inventories net change +111.0t: the largest weekly rise since 8^th September 2026 (+278.1t). It ends five consecutive weekly falls.
• Silver gross long 2,725.0t: the highest since 22^nd September 2026 (3,002.0t).
• Silver ETFs 25,379.0t on 3rd November: the highest since 11^th March 2026 (25,387.8t).
• COMEX silver 10,405.0t: the lowest since 16^th October 2026 (10,380.8t).

COMEX gold stocks fell in each of the last seven sessions, shedding 6.6t, or 0.9% over the week to 715t on 6th November, the lowest since the Gold Enhanced Contract was closed on 22nd September. More than half of the decline came on 5th Novemeber, when 4.0t left the vaults.

Managed money cuts its net long by 6.1t, or 1.8% to 322t on 3rd November, reversing the previous week's gain and taking the position to its lowest since 26th May. The move was driven by fresh shorting: 5.4t of new shorts lifted the gross short to 58.1t, the highest since 7th July, while longs eased by 0.7t. 

Silver positioning, by contrast, rebounded sharply after five weeks of decline, with the net long rising by 11t, or 21.5% to 628t, the largest weekly increase since 8th September. Fresh buying of 102t took the gross long to 2,725t, the highest since 22nd September, and shorts were trimmed by 8.7t to 2.097t. 

Silver ETFs added 207t, or 0.8% to 25,364t, having reached 25,379t on 3rd November, the highest since 11th March, while COMEX silver stocks slipped by 38t, or 0.4%, to 10,405t, the lowest since 16th October. 

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)

Source: CFTC/Bloomberg, StoneX

Declining open interest in gold on COMEX, while the silver component is rising again 

COMEX Managed Money Gold Longs as % of 1st continuation Open Interest; still declining

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)

Source: CFTC/Bloomberg StoneX

COMEX Managed Money Silver Longs as % of 1st continuation Open Interest; increasing

The S&P, gold and copper; S&P/Gold correlation eroded to 0.34 while S&P:Cu correlation is also lower; latest at 0.36

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold, silver and copper correlations; silver-gold much tighter at 0.88 silver-copper, rebounds to 0.69

Gold:Brent ratio

Gold in key local currencies. Year-to-date, up 1.2% in Thai baht, down 10.9% in Korean won

Source for above charts; Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold:silver ratio

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX