Nov 2026

Weekly round-up for StoneX Bullion

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

Big falls in silver last week, shedding 11% on an intra-day basis to touch $48.9 before a mild recovery at the start of this week. Kevin Warsh swerved forward guidance as such following the Fed meeting, but the markets read him as flagging a December hike. More of this in the text below.

More weakness in the high-tech stocks accelerated the decline in gold (distress liquidation, which is almost inevitable in times of trouble), which took silver with it. Concerns over the latter’s fundamental demand have been hanging over silver for some weeks, given the issues in its three growth areas – i.e. EVs, AI and solar.

After months of press coverage and market caution the US mid-Terms are finally upon us. As we write, bookmakers are pricing in a 5:2-ON shot (i.e. 2:5) for Democrats to take control of both Chambers in Congress.

As we noted last week, continued Russian official sector selling, plus offloading from Kazakhstan, again underpin gold’s role as an insurance policy and may well be deterring some potential buyers. That said, the fall to below $3,900, albeit brief, has attracted some dip-buyers, as did the decline in silver.

Opinion is largely unchanged for the medium term, but this weakness is attracting buyers

After the sharp falls of last week, which have helped to take gold down by 31% from the 29^th January peak, and silver by 59%, it is not surprising that there has been some buy-side professional interest at the start of this week. The Mid-Terms are bound to be the focal point of the week in the Western markets, while the strengthening in the yuan plus gold’s international weakness is helping to rejuvenate a jaded jewellery market in China and this will also give some support; Shanghai is currently at a very small premium to loco London.

Meanwhile Festival buying has picked up in India with local prices posting premia to London. The Diwali Festival starts on Friday, with Dhanteras, followed by Diwali on Sunday 8^th November.

Also in India, the Government is reported to have issued import quotas of up to 6,000t of silver, to remain in place for six months. This is likely to ease any possible tightness in India as buying improves ahead of Diwali and the following wedding seasons. We have written a separate note on this, putting it into context, which can be found here.

Gold; $4,000 gives way. Resistance $4,026 - $4,099

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

We are expecting silver to throw off a surplus equivalent to roughly seven weeks’ global fabrication demand this year. If liquidation from ETPs is taken into account then that excess rises to roughly eleven weeks’ demand. Liquidity is ample with the one-month lease rate currently flat.

Silver support $52.3; resistance from $53.8 to $56.3 and then at $61.3

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

S&P hi-tech sub-sector and inverted gold; strong correlation

While the correlation between Brent and the 10Y yield is coming off pretty steeply

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Key long bond yields, long-term and the 5Y-30Y spread; yield curve continues to flatten

Source for both charts: Bloomberg, StoneX

The Fed meeting of last week

To quote Kevin Warsh; “…at every turn, good or bad, our job is to get monetary policy right. And that’s exactly what we’re doing.

“Now, with this objective in mind, we have decided on a change in our FOMC schedule, starting next fall. We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC. But in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated. The rest will be regular FOMC policy-setting meetings and I expect that in 2028, we’ll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of strategy, and six for setting policy”.

“The basis behind this is that near-term developments need to be at regular and information -rich intervals, but it’s equally important to reserve time and space to think “anew” about big questions, looking out over longer time horizons”.

One other key tangible difference is the shift in description of the pace of economic activity from “solid” to “strong”. Otherwise, the accompanying assessment of domestic spending, productivity, investment, employment and unemployment is unchanged in substance.

…”on the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate, conditions are quite positive.

“And yet Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the Committee’s objective for close to 6 years. It’s our responsibility to get inflation down. That’s the reason the FOMC’s discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit.

“…financial conditions…have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect. Market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations. And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I’m unwilling and unable to call them tight. But broadly, these developments go in the direction of achieving a longer, more durable period of economic growth and price stability”…

Gold and silver Inventories, ETFs; poor sentiment persists but some nibbling on the buy side

Highlights:

Gold:

COMEX gold inventories at 721.5t on 27^th October were the lowest reading since the de-listing of the Enhanced delivery contract (which took inventories down a notional 124t), and 30^th October (721.7t) is the second lowest. The last lower value was 702.9t on 14^th January 2025, but that was when the enhanced delivery metal was still listed.

Gold ETFs 3,140.0t: the lowest since 1st October 2026 (3,139.2t).
Gold net +4.2t: the first weekly rise after eight consecutive falls, and the largest weekly rise since 25th August 2026 (+9.6t).

Silver:

Silver net long at 517t: the lowest since 27^th February 2024 (−635.0t). Five consecutive weekly falls.

Silver gross long 2,623t: the highest since 29^th September 2026 (2,626.1t).
Silver gross short 2,106t: the highest since 30^th December 2025 (2,347.1t). Three consecutive weekly rises.
COMEX silver 10,443.3t: the lowest since 19^th October 2026 (10,415.7t) following five consecutive daily falls.
Silver ETFs saw some bargain hunting rising to25,160t on 29^th October: the highest since 13th March 2026 (25,250t).

COMEX gold stocks edged down by 2.5t, or 0.3%, over the week to 722t on 30^th October.

Gold ETF holdings fell by 6.0t, or 0.2%, to 3,140t, the lowest since 1st October, with most of the outflow on the 26^th Year to date; up 240t.

Managed money increased the net long for the first time in nine weeks, by 4.2t, or 1.3%, to 328t on 27^th October, the largest weekly increase since 25^th August. The rise came from 4.8t of new longs against just 0.6t of new shorts, although the net position is still 122t below the 450t peak of 25^th August.

Silver positioning weakened for a fifth consecutive week: the net long fell by 29t, or 5.2%, to 516t, the lowest since 27^th February 2024. Both sides of the book expanded, with fresh buying of 106t taking the gross long to 2,623t, the highest since 29th September, but this was more than offset by 135t of new shorts, taking the outright short to 2,106t, the highest since 30^th December 2025. COMEX silver stocks fell for a fifth consecutive session, by 73t, or 0.7%, over the week to 10,443t, the lowest since 19th October. The ETFs, by contrast, added 90t, or 0.4%, to 25,156t, having reached 25,160t on 29^th October, the highest since 13th March.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)