Oct 2026

Weekly round-up for StoneX Bullion

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

Closure of the COMEX enhanced delivery gold contract on 22^nd September explains the large weekly fall in COMEX inventories at that point; note that this is a de-listing and does not imply actual metal movement.

Fed September Minutes released last Wednesday; hawkish tone; we think gold has already priced in another hike – probably December rather than October

Watch for: US PCI on Wednesday (called 3.6% Y/Y) and PPI Thursday (called 5.4%); this disparity points to continued medium-term inflationary pressure in the States

Opinion

There is still a body of support for gold stemming from continued press comments about official sector net purchases (which in our view is more significant for the message that it sends to the markets about risk-management than the actual tonnage) and the mood music coming from the professional investment fraternity is that the risk in gold lies to the upside.

Once we have some kind of resolution to the hostilities in the Middle East (and with the escalation over the weekend between Houthi groups and Saudi Arabia, that looks to be a way off), there is a possibility that oil prices will retreat and with them, bond yields. This is presented as a bull argument for gold.

There is an alternative way of looking at this, however. The official sector is almost certainly a constant in this Maret. But the array of professional fund managers who are calling gold higher suggests that much of their investment may have been done already – after all, most shrewd investors would establish their positions in any asset before publicly expressing clear opinions. The banks. of course, are a different matter as their role in the market is not the same as long-term investment managers.

Recent background

After gold’s fall from a shade over $4,300 over the Friday 25^th-Monday 28^th period, gold spent just over a week ambling between $4,115 and $4,225 and was essentially a jobbing market with bargain hunting meeting profit taking against a continually uncertain geopolitical backdrop. Support developed at $4,100 and after a midweek slippage to the lows on the expectation (duly fulfilled) of a hawkish set of Minutes from the Fed, gold picked up, albeit not by much, on a detailed reading of the comments by Fed hawk Christopher Waller. He reaffirmed the need for at least one more rate hike – but he also said that there was flexibility on timing and no need to tighten at consecutive meetings.

Gold; immediate support $3,942. Next body of support is towards $3,768

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

The market continues to tread water. The next FOMC meeting is 28^th October, which means that the FOMC members go into blackout this coming Saturday. Swaps markets are pricing in less than a 20% chance of a hike in October but a 70% probability of a 25-point hike at the meeting, which concludes on 9^th December (this is one of the four meetings in the year that include Special Economic Projections; it will be interesting to see whether the dot plot is still part of the package).

Meanwhile the technical construction, in terms of moving averages at least, points to continued narrow ranges. There is still a possibility that the 50-20 Day death cross may be achieved but with this current lack of momentum it would be unlikely to trigger a sharp move.

Continued high correlation between Brent and the 10Y yields as they respond to Gulf developments

Once again silver is moving in lockstep with gold although unusually its range, at 5.6%, has been narrower than that of gold, which has posted a 6.3% range over the past week. Technicals are neutral and the market continues to fret over the oversupply of solar in Europe, although the German industrial production figure for August came in well above expectations, at -2.3% Y/Y and if this can prove to be persistent or even help to cascade into other parts of the EU, this may lend some psychological support to the silver market. But this is a small element of the market and sentiment is geared more to the impact of high energy prices on overall industrial activity– especially since silver supply is more or less price-inelastic.

On a global basis, solar accounted for ~20% of silver fabrication last year and we are expecting a rough 20% contraction this year.

Coin activity:

Perth Mint picks up in both gold and silver in September;

Gold; 47,300 ounces (1.5t) up 98% over August and 29% over September 2025

Silver; 605.408 ounces (18.9t) up 81% over August and 5% over September 2025

US Mint is different story;

Gold 0.17t (continued value $23M) down 72% over August in tonnage terms and 74% in continued value

Silver 8.55t (contained value $16.6M) up 31% in tonnage over August and 19% in contained value

Silver's medium-term body of support is between $54.80 and $60.15

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Key long bond yields, long-term and the 5Y-30Y spread; yield curve continues to flatten

Source for both charts: Bloomberg, StoneX

Inventories, ETFs

COMEX gold stocks were essentially unchanged in the week to 9^th October, easing by just 0.1t to 730t.

The ETPs added 5.0t, or 0.2%, to 3,145t on 9^th October, with steady inflows taking holdings to 3,151t on 8^th October before 5.5t left on the final day.

Managed money cut its net long for a sixth consecutive week, by 29.0t, or 7.8%, to 345t on 6t h October, the lowest since 9th June and the largest weekly fall since 24^th March. Since the peak of 450t on 25^th August the net long has shed 105t. The move was split almost evenly between 14.3t of long liquidation and 14.7t of fresh shorts, which lifted the gross short to 50.1t, its highest since 21^st July. At 395t the outright long is 14% below the 12-month moving average and also the lowest since 9^th June.

Silver COMEX stocks fell for four consecutive sessions after reaching 10,518t on 5th October, ending the week 180t, or 1.7%, lower at 10,320t, the largest seven-day fall since 18th September.

The ETPs also eased, by 54.2t, or 0.2%, to 24,943t. CFTC positioning steadied after the previous week's collapse: the net long slipped by 13.4t, or 1.1%, to 1,171t, the lowest since 17^th February, with longs trimmed by 66.7t and shorts covered by 53.3t. This time the physical market did the moving.

Gold Comex positioning, Money Managers (t)