Oct 2026

Weekly round-up for StoneX Bullion

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

Closure of the COMEX enhanced delivery gold contract on 22^nd September explains the large weekly fall in COMEX inventories at that point; note that this is a de-listing and does not imply actual metal movement.

NonFarm Payroll briefly misled the market; US holds bond auctions this week

Watch for Fed September Minutes, released Wednesday

Gold started last week on the back foot, as borne out by the Commitment of Traders Report that refers to close of business on Tuesday 29^th Sepetember. Over the week to that date, outright Managed Money longs fell from 422t to 410t (see below), continuing a liquidation trend that started in late August when the outright longs stood at 497t. Shorts have also contracted over that five-week period and, at 422t they now stand at 11% below the twelve-month average.

Gold; immediate support $3,942. Next body of support is towards $3,768

Fundamental buying interest has remained steady, if sluggish, with some funds going bargain hunting and consistent reports of official sector interest making headlines and informing sentiment accordingly. The drivers were much the same as they have been for some months; Gulf hostilities leading to oil price strength and volatility, plus high US yields and an increasing likelihood of another hike from the European central bank.

US employment numbers; the devil is – again – in the detail

FedWatching is still with us, with the next Fed meeting scheduled for 27-28^th October. The markets had been putting a rough 70% probability of a hike in October, but this collapsed when the NonFarm Payroll numbers were released on Friday. At just +29k against a call of +90k and following+162k in July the markets immediately changed tack with respect to the Fed and there were knee-jerk reactions across the financial sectors.

Last month we wrote this about the upward distortion in nonfarm in August:

“Friday delivered the payroll surprise. Non -farm payrolls rose162,000 against a consensus of roughly 53,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1% — superficially a very large beat, which was immediately read as clearing the path for a September increase.

BUT this was not as dramatic as it seems as part of the jump was in government employment, reversing the July fall. Another quirk was a big jump in leisure and hospitality, coming after falls in June and July as World Cup -related hiring was reversed”

This time, government payrolls are down 17k, Leisure & Hospitality is up by just 10k. So if we take the mean July and August overall numbers, the average monthly gain would be 96kpm. Oxford Economics argues that “on a trend basis, job growth is well in line with our estimate of the breakeven pace of job growth [~50k]. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.2% because the labour force overall is still contracting”.

Continued high correlation between Brent and the 10Y yield as they respond to Gulf developments

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Back into the metals markets and silver’s steady support at $60 last week may come under some fresh pressure this week. Key focus will be Wednesday’s publication of the Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, while the numbers coming from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) may also shed some light on the trajectory of the major bond yields in the States. The ISM Prices Paid is called at ~73 and anything much above this could unsettle the bond markets and put the $60 support under test.

Silver's medium-term body of support is between $54.80 and $60.15

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

In addition silver's technical analysis is bordering on bearish as the 20-day moving average is crossing below the 50-day average as we write ($63.68). The solar market remains oversupplied although inventories are being worked off. We are expecting the global silver market to throw offa surplus this year, likely in the region of the equivalent of five weeks' physical demand.

Key long bond yields, long-term and the 5Y-30Y spread; yield curve continues to flatten

Source for both charts: Bloomberg, StoneX

Inventories, ETFs

COMEX gold stocks edged up by 3.8t, or 0.53%, to 730.3t in the week to 2^nd October. This was the first full week after the closure of the Gold Enhanced Delivery Contract, so the comparison is like-for-like, and it shows small, steady deposits after three flat days. The ETPs (as recorded by Bloomberg, which is not as comprehensive as World Gold Council numbers) added 5.0t, or 0.16%, to 3,140.2t as at 2nd October, with almost all of the gain arriving on 28th September and remaining broadly flat thereafter. Managed money cut its net long for a fifth consecutive week, by 22.0t, or 5.5%, to 374.2t as at 29th September, the lowest since 28th July. Unlike the previous week, this was not only long liquidation: the gross long fell by 12.4t, but fresh shorts added 9.6t, lifting the gross short by more than a third to 35.4t.

Silver was the story of the week where positioning was concerned. Managed money net length fell by 886t, or 43%, to 1,184t, the lowest since 17th February, while the fall was the largest in tonnage terms since 30th December 2025 (922t as tariff-related activity partially unwound). It came from both sides, with 376t of long liquidation and 510t of new shorts, the latter the biggest weekly rise in the gross short since 29th October 2024. The physical market was far calmer. COMEX stocks rose by 122t, or 1.2%, to 10,429t as at 30^th September, and the ETPs barely moved, easing by 16.6t to 24,998t.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)