Sep 2026

Weekly round-up for StoneX Bullion

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

Closure of the COMEX enhanced delivery gold contract on 22^nd September explains the large weekly fall in COMEX inventories; note that this is a de-listing and does not imply actual metal movement.

The focus last week was on the presentations and meetings at the High Level United Nations meeting, notably President Trump and President Xi, along with the pro’s and con’s of AI.

Following the FOMC meeting of the previous week, the FOMC members came out of the black-out period and there were several speakers, all veering towards further hikes. This week sees a slew of such peakers.

Gold; immediate support $3,942. Next body of support is towards $3,768

Silver's medium-term body of support is between $54.80 and $60.15

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

While gold still has physical tailwinds to enjoy in the shape of the steady interest from the official sector and the potential uptick in Indian physical gold demand ahead of Diwali and the wedding seasons, there are also several cautionary notes. The first is that the Indian Monsoon thus far has been weak, likely 12% below the long-term average with the south peninsula down 23% and the northwest, 9%. Central India was within 1% of the average. and while gold (and silver)prices have eased of late, they are still hsitrocally high andwe may well find that jewwellery dmeadn is not boosted byas muc as usual, and / or gold is bought and then held back for fabrication at a later stage. Simiallry, silver weddong presents may not be as lively as usual.

In addition the physical gold jewellery market in China is somnolent although coin & bar demand is relatively robust. Demand in Dubai is extremely sluggish, resulting in local discounts to loco London

Gold in rupee terms; seasonality chart

In the professional markets all eyes continue to focus on the Gulf developments, and by association rising oil and yields with the US 10-year yield still at 19-year highs as Iran refuses to modify its latest Hormuz demand, which had already been rejected by President Trump. Some reports are suggesting that negotiations will resume later this week. Menawhile the Saudi cross-country pipeline is reported to be up and running (after repoaitrs following a drone attack earlier ni the month), with Aramco recommencing oil exports.

Continued correlation between Brent and the 10Y yield as they respond to Gulf developments

Once again silver has traded in line with gold but with higher volatility; from 25^th August the London morning hours of 28^th September, gold has dropped by 10.4% from $4,607 (intraday prints) to $4,130, and in the process falling below all the key moving averages. Silver slipped from a high of $71.14 on 28^th September to a low of $60.91 on the morning of Monday 18^th September, a fall of 14.4%; silver, too, has dropped below the key moving averages.

Key long bond yields, long-term and the 5Y-30Y spread, yield-curve continues to ease

Source for both charts: Bloomberg, StoneX

Inventories, ETFs

The headline COMEX gold figure fell by 125.3t, or 14.7%, to 726.5t as at 25th September, but this does not reflect demand. Almost all of the fall came on 22^nd September, when the CME closed the Gold Enhanced Delivery Contract with immediate effect, and metal that four key market players had vaulted against it dropped out of the reported total because that metal had been de-listed. This does not mean that metal actually come out of the vaults.

Outside that one-off, stocks were broadly unchanged, rising by 1.0t on 21st September and barely moving after 22nd. The lower base means, that at a headline level the series now stands at its lowest since 15th January 2025 and 401t down on the year, so comparisons across 22^nd September should be read with care.

The ETPs moved in the other direction, adding 12.7t, or 0.41%, to 3,135.2t, with most of the gain coming on 24^th and 25^th September. This followed an increase of 27.1t in the week to 18^th; note that the subsequent numbers come from Bloomberg, which are less comprehensive than the WGC figures, which currently run to 18^th September.

Managed money reduced its net long by 17.8t, or 4.3%, to 396.2t in the week to 22^nd September. That came from 20.8t of long liquidation, partly offset by a 3.0t reduction in the gross short, so it reads as further lightening of an already shrinking long rather than new selling.

Silver was calmer. COMEX stocks rose by 78t, or 0.76%, to 10,344t, reversing some of the previous week's drawdown with a steady build each day.

The ETPs added 164t, or 0.66%, to 25,014t, helped by an inflow of just over 200t on 22nd September.

The managed money net long rose by 24t to 2,1719t, although not through new buying: the gross long fell by 145t, and the net figure improved only because short covering of 169t outpaced it.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)