Aug 2026

Weekly round-up for Stonex Bullion

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

US retail sales were weak – but part of that was seasonal

Outlook: likely to maintain the recent marginal rise in prices but absent an exogenous shock, unlikely to rise much further near term

Last week’s headlines in the financial sector were dominated by the weakness in US retail sales, which were reported on Friday. The headline number was down by 0.6% with motor vehicle and dealer sales down by almost 2%. Control Group (i.e. excluding food services, autos, petrol stations and building materials stores) was down by 0 4%, the largest fall since January of last year. There are two elements to point out here; one is that the income tax rebates have now more or less come out of the system, which would put something of a dampener on spending activity after a healthy first half. But also, as the heat map below shows, July has a tendency to be seasonally weak. Nonetheless the markets reacted by weakening the dollar, which gave some fresh buoyancy to both gold and silver, both of which had spent much of the week largely consolidating after their gains of a few days previously. As we write, gold is trading at just below $4,400 with silver looking to test $66.

Heatmap of monthly US retail sales; this July was weak, but part of that is seasonal

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is currently facing conflicting elements. The tailwind is caution over the dollar while headwinds include the steepening yield curve with the 30 bond currently at 5.3%; mortgage rates are in excess of 6%. They revolve largely around the 30 year rate and this is keeping some pressure on the housing market, which works against silver. Deeper in the background stresses are again appearing in the private credit sector (which is estimated at ~$2Tn), with the Financial Times reporting that “troubled loans” in the hands of some of the largest private credit investors are now at levels last seen in 2017 (following a crash in the oil price). Fitch Ratings noted last week that private credit defaults hit a record level in July, and loans being placed on a non-accrual basis (i.e. payments are not being repaid or a fund fears a client default) are continuing to increase.

Elsewhere probably the most interesting element in the precious metals sector at the moment is India. While we have noted before that we are currently in an inauspicious period for weddings and significant ceremonies, which undermines both gold and silver, there has been a positive development for the silver market overall. India is the world’s largest consumer of silver in the form of jewellery and silverware. Metals Focus numbers show as follows for 2025;

Indian silverware demand, 857t ,63% of the global sector

Jewellery, 2,187t, 37% of the sector

Combined; 3,044t or 9% of global total fabrication

One of the reasons why the Indian market has been quiet of late is that banks and jewellers have been waiting for import licences. A number of these have now been granted and we are now expecting the situation to stabilise and for premia to return to their normal levels – at the end of last week the local 30 Day Average, according to Metals Focus was roughly $4 per ounce (6%). In May the Government had imposed licencing requirements for silver imports as part of an exercise to protect foreign exchange reserves and this had a significant impact on imports. While some licences have now been issued, they come with more stringent requirements than previously including a formal official certificate of origin which does mean that imports can be subject to delays. Imports should be increasing now as jewellers build inventory ahead of the wedding and gifting season.

On the technical side gold is currently trading level with the 10-day and 20-day moving averages at $4,395, while the 200-day -day moving average is challenging the 50-day at $4,382. Silver is still way below the 200-day ($72) but is finding support from the 10-day at $63.7. Below that the 20-day is itself challenging the 50-day at $61.

As we noted last week, US tariffs are to be applied to polysilicon products, with a 15% implementation due on the 4^th of December. Solar cells fall into this category and this sector is the largest component of silver fabrication demand with an approximate 20% share last year; we are expecting a fall of something like 20% this year as a result of the oversupply in the market, particularly in Europe, along with continued thrifting which is not in itself unusual - far from it when we are dealing with an expensive component - and the threat of partial substitution by copper. The market does not expect silver to be particularly heavily hit in this particular respect although it does mean that the cost of electricity generated from this source will rise in the United States.

US five-year and 30-year yield

Energy picks up again due to weekend developments in the Gulf

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold, potential Golden Cross on the horizon

Silver’s moving averages are improving, but borderline neutral

Source; Bloomberg, StoneX

The latest CFTC gold figures, for the week to 11^th August with gold absorbing the rally from the previous week, and entering a period of consolidation on either side of $4,350, saw a reasonably substantial increase in outright lungs alongside a smaller increase in the shorts. Silver, meanwhile, with a nod to its industrial characteristics, was more cautious with light long liquidation and a small increase in outright shorts, taking the net long down to 1,840t.

Within the ETFs there has been continued buying interest but in keeping with consolidation in price action, the activity was slower than in the previous week. The latest numbers from the World Gold Council run as far as the 7^th of August and in the preceding week 20 tonnes were added taking the total to 4,090t. In percentage terms Asia was again the most active but only added 1% or just under six tonnes while North America and Europe were on either side of eight tonnes each. Subsequent Bloomberg figures (not as comprehensive as WGC) report steady buying last week although there was a touch of profit taking on Friday for a net gain over the period of 13t. Silver ETFs (Bloomberg numbers) also showed a continued revival in interest with net gains over the week of 188t (just less than 1%) to 24,6356t for a net loss year-to-date of 1,998t.