Apr 2026

Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

The gold and silver markets have obviously been in thrall over the past few weeks to geopolitical activity concentrated on the Strait of Hormuz. Silver has generally been following gold although as usual price activity has been much more volatile, most notably at the end of last week when silver surged by 5% on the announcement, subsequently revoked, that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open and would remain so for the rest of the period of ceasefire The Strait is now closed again in what is believed to be a response to the continued blockade put up by the United States. Talks are continuing and reported to be making some progress although the two sides are still pretty far apart. So for the time being these markets are going to remain cautious and volatile. Professional trading houses remain reluctant to commit large positions in the face of such febrile geopolitical conditions and exchange traded funds have been shedding metal over the past few days, while shorter-term speculators are on both sides of the markets.

On COMEX the outright managed money long positions in gold came down in the final week of March and have subsequently been regaining ground, although at 3,190t they are still some 15t shy of the position on March 17th. Shorts have also increased but to a lesser extent, meaning that the net long position has been trading narrowly and centred between 280 and 310 tonnes. Silver positions topped out in the final week of March and drifted lower until mid April, but have subsequently regained some traction on the back of bargain hunting. Shorts have been covering but not to the same extent as earlier long liquidation, which means that the net long has been declining very gradually to stand most recently at 1,830t, substantially lower than the 12 month average of 4,126t. So in both cases the speculative overhang has been eroded, which potentially leaves some upside scope for both metals .

In the background the manoeuvring in the United States continues with respect to the Chairmanship of the Fed; Republican Senator Thomas Tillis, who is on the Senate Banking Committee, is continuing to put a block on the swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as the Fed's Chairman when Jay Powell’s term of office finishes on the 15th of May; he is refusing to lift that block until the end of, or dropping of, the Department of Justice’s probes into the cost overruns in the renovation of the Fed buildings, along with President Trump’s associated claim that Jay Powell has been deceiving Congress. The President has said that should Jay Powell continue in office after the 15th May (for which there Is apparently a justification under the Federal Reserve Act) he will fire him. Informed opinion is of the view that this Is not possible, but we will have to wait and see what transpires in three weeks’ time. This will keep the precious metals markets nervy. It may seem counterintuitive that gold has risen in price when geopolitical tensions appear to have eased, and vice versa, but because there is so much going on in the background It looks for now as if the specific market related driving forces of the performance of the dollar and Treasury yields. These have been coming off when the news has been good and this has fed into bullish activity in the gold market, largely from a speculative bias.

Meanwhile there is interesting news from the Chinese Government statistics offices with very strong silver imports In March, in excess of 830t (against a March average of ~300t) feeding largely into the photovoltaic market as well as retail investment plus arbitrage activity on the back of high local premia. The global PV sector is actually oversupplied for the time being, although we expect those inventories to be run off over the course of the next few months. The March activity was boosted not just by high local prices but also the fact that export tax rebates ceased as of the end of the month, so it looks as If we are again seeing some front loading in this particular Industry for the year as a whole.

The latest metals focus Numbers in the Silver Institute's Silver Survey, published last week, are expecting a decline in demand in this sector this year because of the overstocking that we already have In place and of course with continued efforts at thrifting of use in an expensive component.

Silver use in solar cells; tonnage and market share

Outlook: small bounce

We expect these markets to continue to ribbon jumpy While there Is so much at stake elsewhere in the world including what appears to be increased tension in the Asia Pacific region With Japan joining a regular military drill on the part of the United States and the Philippines which seems to be eliciting a response from China. We still believe that the highs are in for both metals.

Gold and stressed markets