Jul 2026

Weekly round-up for Stonex Bullion CW28

By Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

EMEA & Asia, 13^th July 2026: Tel +44 203 580 6115 / +44 7384 833897

Now silver has a Death Cross to deal with

Outlook: continued downside risk lurking in the background

Even though the gold and silver prices have been holding in very narrow ranges since the final week of June, with gold clinging on to $4,000 and silver hovering around $60, the physical markets have remained very quiet. The Shanghai onshore price is showing only a tiny premium to loco London, reflecting a quiet market, while there is little activity in the Middle East or in South Asia. The professional market is not much better as investors and traders remain reluctant to commit in any size while the international tensions revolving around the Middle East continue to fluctuate. To a large extent the market is resigned to these continued changes and if anything this should be a tailwind for gold as a mitigator of risk.

Gold, sitting on the 10D moving average, below the rest; Death Cross widening

Source; Bloomberg, StoneX

The fact that this is not taking prices higher, and looking back over the past twelve months, underscores the view that most risk hedging has already been done. As a result the outlook for interest rates continues to hold sway. Thus, as we write, gold is fighting shy of the risk of higher rates internationally, especially given the line that the FOMC, under Chair Kevin Warsh, is taking and the possibility that the ECB will raise rates again if inflationary forces intensify. This is keeping some pressure on the gold price. Meanwhile silver has a double burden to bear in that it tends to follow gold’s lead, but also it is important to bear in mind that over 70% of silver fabrication is in the industrial sector and the risk of higher rates plus the disruption to supply chains with Hormuz closed and risk to economic growth is putting pressure on the metals as an asset class overall. Silver’s easing correlation with gold and tightening correlation with copper (see chart below) bears this out.

Silver’s 50-day moving average has now crossed below the 200-day, so silver, as well as gold, now has to handle the bearish implications of a technical Death Cross.

We continue to expect these metals to remain under pressure unless and until there is a substantial improvement in international relations.

Silver; Death Cross at $70; spot tussling with the short-term averages

Meanwhile in the background the official sector remains a support; the Governor of Poland’s central bank said last week that the Government has bought 82t of gold so far this year “taking advantage of recent price drops”. The target is 700t, while current holdings amount to 632t, of which 105t are held locally with the balance split between London and New York. The latest figures from the World Gold Council (2^nd July), taken from the IMF, confirm light sales from Turkey (distress), with increases in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan, the Czech Republic and Singapore, as well as the reported numbers from the People’s Bank of China.

Elsewhere in the investment universe, the latest CFTC gold figures show light long liquidation and an expansion of 30% (13t) of shorts to 420 and 58 tonnes respectively in the week to 7^th July; the pattern was similar in silver with a 0.3% drop in longs and a 9% increase in short to 3,102t and 948t respectively (global mine production is ~26,250t).

In the Exchange Traded funds sphere, regional changes in the year to 30^th June showed a drop of 61t in North America (3%), a small gain of 8t in Europe and a 70t (16%) gain in Asia, for a year-to-date global increase of just 18t and a drop of 97t since mid-April. Bloomberg figures, which are not as comprehensive as those from the World Gold Council, suggest a further drop of four tonnes. Silver ETFs are reported at 24,306t, a drop of 2,515t in the year to date.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)