Precious snapshot – hefty sell-off across the board the a reported Trump tweet turns everything around

Last week gold was treading water; now it is under water and silver (as usual) has suffered even more

Two key factors were behind the precipitous falls; the Middle East and the Fed meeting

But there is a lot more involved.

As we write gold, which had dropped to a low of $4,126 (from $5,419 on 2nd March), has bounced by over $150 following a reported Tweet from President Trump to the effect that talks have been making solid progress over the weekend and that he has ordered a five-day moratorium on strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure. So this is not an outright ceasefire but potentially paves the way for further progress.

So gold and silver have now had their much-needed wash-out after their stellar performances of the past few months. To sum up briefly, the factors contributing to the falls were as follows: -

Liquidation / profit taking on concerns over potential rate hikes, or at least not much further easing – it was pretty significant that Chris Waller didn't call for a cut in this week's FOMC as he is one of the strongest proponents of easier monetary policy

Gold has already been getting edgy at prices over $5,200, suggesting that the market was crowded; silver perhaps not quite so much, but as is almost invariably the case, gold’s powerful move took silver with it, an to a greater extent

Technicals, notably moving averages, exacerbating the situation

Some likely distress selling against equity weakness although in % terms gold is down a lot further this month than S&P (24% vs 10%)

Central Banks buying a lot less gold than in the past three years; this is not so important where tonnage is concerned but the knowledge of it will affect sentiment. The Wrold Gold Council reports that net purchases in January were just five tonnes; this compares wit a monthly average of 72tpm in 2025.

The same applies to ETFs, which have lost at least 96t. The latest figures from the World Gold Council was 4170.4145.2t on 13th March, subsequent (incomplete) numbers from Bloomberg suggest a fall of at least 25t last week.

Stops were hit as prices came down, which exacerbated the speed of the moves

From last Monday’s high to the lows so far were as follows: -

Gold; $5,038 to $4,099, or 29%

Silver;$81.64 to $60.96, or 25%

From the end-January peaks to today’s lows so far:

Gold $5595 to $4,099 or 31%

Silver; $121.65 to $60.96, - a thumping 50%.

Since the start of 2024, however, they are up by 113% and 185% respectively.

Source: Bloomberg

Silver ETFs have continued to lose metal, with the latest figures showing 25,289t, a fall of 1,573t or 6% since the start of the year. World silver mine production is ~27,000tpa.

On COMEX, silver inventories have continued to come off sharply over the past few weeks and, at 10,629t, are down by 5,902t since end-September and getting back towards the more normal 9,000-10,000t levels. This may take some of the volatility out of the market as it helps to ease London’s position. Gold inventories at 1,012t are 10% down for the year to date.

Among the Managed Money funds, gold positioning has increased slightly on both sides of the market with outright longs at 405t from 389t and shorts at 87t from 83. Silver longs have contracted again to 2,053t 2,132t and there has been a small increase in shorts, from 463t to 485t; as recently as mid-February they were 2,465t. So it is clear that short covering was a key silver driver (it usually is), even as long positions were contracting (they were 5,589t in early February).

Gold, one-year view; right down to the 200-day moving average

Source; Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold:Brent ratio

Outlook: small bounce

The massive sell-price falls have taken both etals into oversold territory and with hostilities not over in the Middle East and the potential for further tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan after the Eid celebrations are over, we can probably expect some fresh buying interest. We still nleive, however, that the highs are in for both metals.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)

COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)

Source for both charts: CFTC, StoneX

The S&P, gold and the dollar; gold:S&P tighter at 0.34

Source; Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold, silver and copper; silver-gold 0.85; silver-copper, 0.56. Little changed

Silver, one-year view; on a Fib 61.8% retracement from the massive falls in January and early February

US five-year and 30-year yield

Source; Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold in key local currencies. In yen terms, up 190% since the start of 2023; CHF is the smallest rise at “just” 101%

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold:silver ratio; has been narrowing in the second half of February but widening slightly; latest at 62

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX